Back to Journal2026-03-20
AI News

The Reasoning Cost Flip: Intelligence Deflation

Economics defy gravity in AI. O3-mini is 63% cheaper than O1-mini, yet smarter. We have entered the era of Intelligence Deflation.

The Reasoning Cost Flip: Intelligence Deflation

Contents

Moore's Law is too slow for AI. We are seeing a 10x cost reduction every 18 months. O3-mini shattered the floor price for reasoning tokens. This flips the entire SaaS business model.

Previously, you sold 'AI features' as a premium add-on. Now, intelligence is so cheap that charging for it feels like charging for electricity. It's a commodity.

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If intelligence is free, what costs money? Energy and Context. The bottleneck isn't the model's brain; it's the cost of moving electrons to power the GPU and the memory bandwidth to hold the context.

# The New Pricing Model
def calculate_cost(tokens, reasoning_depth):
    base_rate = 0.000001 # Effectively zero
    energy_surcharge = get_current_kwh_price() * reasoning_depth
    return base_rate + energy_surcharge

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Discover how ReinforcedX can transform your business with cutting-edge reinforcement learning solutions.

We are moving away from 'pay-per-token' to 'pay-per-outcome'. The market will not tolerate metered billing for much longer. Flat-rate intelligence is the only way forward for consumer adoption. Imagine if Google charged you per search query—that's where we are today with LLMs, and it's about to end.

Software-as-a-Service is dying. We are moving to Model-as-a-Service where you pay for outcomes, not seats. Why pay $20/month for a seat when an agent can do the job for $0.02 per run?

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are prices dropping so fast?

Distillation. We are teaching small models to mimic huge ones.

What should startups do?

Stop selling 'AI wrappers'. Sell the work the AI does.

Is 'intelligence deflation' real?

Yes. The cost of reasoning is trending toward zero, faster than any other commodity in history.
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